Cheltenhamvs
Newport County
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/24/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cheltenham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cheltenham 1-0 Newport County
Original prediction
Cheltenham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 37.1% | 36.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.9% | 28.7% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 35.0% | 34.7% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Cheltenham
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Cheltenham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00