Cheltenhamvs
Grimsby
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grimsby · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cheltenham 2-2 Grimsby
Original prediction
Grimsby
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.47 | 26.8% | 34.8% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.4% | 28.8% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 1.98 | 46.8% | 36.5% | -10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.51 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Grimsby
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Grimsby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CheltenhamWDLWL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
GrimsbyDDDWL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CheltenhamGrimsby
66.7Attack41.7
41.7Defence66.7
58.3Form50.0
58.8Power56.2
1.50xG1.26