Cheltenhamvs
Chesterfield
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cheltenham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cheltenham 2-1 Chesterfield
Original prediction
Cheltenham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.01 | 30.6% | 36.3% | 5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.7% | 28.3% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 43.7% | 35.4% | -8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Cheltenham
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Cheltenham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60