Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelsea · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chelsea 0-2 Tottenham
Original prediction
Chelsea
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 50.6% | 58.3% | 7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 24.7% | 21.4% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 3.86 | 24.7% | 20.3% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Chelsea
Probability
58.3%
Model confidence
58.3%
Chelsea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChelseaWWLDW
GF 15 · GA 9 · avg 3.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TottenhamWDLLD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ChelseaTottenham
81.0Attack28.6
38.1Defence52.4
61.9Form28.6
60.4Power38.7
2.40xG1.05