Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelsea · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chelsea 2-2 Hull City
Original prediction
Chelsea
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 77.2% | 48.4% | -28.8 pts |
| Draw | 6.52 | 14.6% | 23.2% | 8.6 pts |
| Away | 11.65 | 8.2% | 28.4% | 20.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 5.52 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Chelsea
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Chelsea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChelseaWLWWW
GF 16 · GA 10 · avg 3.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Hull CityLDWDW
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
ChelseaHull City
88.9Attack33.3
22.2Defence100.0
66.7Form77.8
62.6Power72.8
1.60xG1.47