Chelseavs
Bournemouth
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelsea · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth
Original prediction
Chelsea
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 53.9% | 47.4% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 23.7% | 23.7% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 4.27 | 22.4% | 28.9% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Chelsea
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Chelsea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 13 · avg 2.60/2.60
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20