Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Charlton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Charlton 1-0 Preston
Original prediction
Charlton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 44.8% | 50.0% | 5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 28.9% | 26.0% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.57 | 26.3% | 24.0% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Charlton
Probability
50.0%
Model confidence
50.0%
Charlton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CharltonLWWWL
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
PrestonLLLDL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CharltonPreston
66.7Attack33.3
66.7Defence16.7
100.0Form0.0
83.3Power21.5
2.03xG0.93