Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Norwich · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Charlton 1-3 Norwich
Original prediction
Norwich
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.20 | 29.3% | 34.4% | 5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 27.7% | 28.1% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 43.1% | 37.5% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Norwich
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Norwich has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CharltonLDDLD
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
NorwichLLLLL
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CharltonNorwich
30.3Attack51.5
54.5Defence36.4
42.4Form27.3
45.2Power39.7
1.27xG1.25