Charltonvs
Bristol City
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/10/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Charlton 1-1 Bristol City
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.14 | 29.9% | 32.9% | 3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.9% | 30.2% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.28 | 41.1% | 36.9% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.24 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.2%
Model confidence
36.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CharltonLDDLD
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Bristol CityWWLLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CharltonBristol City
29.2Attack45.8
58.3Defence50.0
50.0Form54.2
48.6Power52.4
1.03xG1.09