Charlottevs
Chicago Fire
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/26/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Charlotte · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Charlotte 0-1 Chicago Fire
Original prediction
Charlotte
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 42.1% | 40.1% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.3% | 27.2% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 33.6% | 32.7% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Charlotte
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Charlotte has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40