Chapecoense-scvs
Fluminense
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/24/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fluminense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chapecoense-sc 2-1 Fluminense
Original prediction
Fluminense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.32 | 21.8% | 15.3% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 25.7% | 20.0% | -5.7 pts |
| Away | 1.79 | 52.5% | 64.7% | 12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Fluminense
Probability
64.7%
Model confidence
64.7%
Fluminense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00