Chapecoense-scvs
Atletico Paranaense
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/12/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Paranaense · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chapecoense-sc 1-4 Atletico Paranaense
Original prediction
Atletico Paranaense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.93 | 23.9% | 17.3% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 26.7% | 21.9% | -4.8 pts |
| Away | 1.90 | 49.5% | 60.8% | 11.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Paranaense
Probability
60.8%
Model confidence
60.8%
Atletico Paranaense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40