CF Montrealvs
Atlanta United FC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/14/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CF Montreal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CF Montreal 0-3 Atlanta United FC
Original prediction
CF Montreal
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 40.4% | 37.1% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 25.6% | 28.3% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 34.0% | 34.6% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
CF Montreal
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
CF Montreal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60