Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cesena · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cesena 1-1 Mantova
Original prediction
Cesena
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 36.1% | 43.3% | 7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 29.3% | 27.6% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.69 | 34.6% | 29.1% | -5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Cesena
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Cesena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CesenaWDLDW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MantovaLWWWL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CesenaMantova
39.3Attack41.2
59.0Defence50.9
45.3Form38.6
50.1Power45.9
1.26xG0.91