Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cremonese · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cesena 0-0 Cremonese, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cesena 2-2 Cremonese
Original prediction
Cremonese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.08 | 30.2% | 26.5% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 29.5% | 29.9% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.31 | 40.3% | 43.5% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Projected Score
Cesena 0–0 Cremonese
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Cremonese
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Cremonese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CesenaDWDLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CremoneseWWLLW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
CesenaCremonese
39.3Attack44.4
59.0Defence71.4
45.3Form57.1
50.1Power59.1
0.70xG1.02