Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Avellino · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cesena 1-1 Avellino
Original prediction
Avellino
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 41.1% | 33.0% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 29.4% | 27.1% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.16 | 29.4% | 39.9% | 10.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.16 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Avellino
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Avellino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CesenaLDDDW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
AvellinoWLDWW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CesenaAvellino
38.9Attack61.1
55.6Defence61.1
38.9Form55.6
47.4Power59.0
1.09xG1.42