Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cerro 0-1 Penarol, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerro 1-2 Penarol
Original prediction
Penarol
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.48 | 14.1% | 10.0% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.3% | 21.7% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.49 | 61.6% | 68.4% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Projected Score
Cerro 0–1 Penarol
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
68.4%
Model confidence
68.4%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CerroWLWDD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
PenarolWWDLW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CerroPenarol
26.2Attack58.3
51.2Defence72.6
38.1Form66.7
41.3Power66.3
0.43xG1.67