Cerrovs
Deportivo Maldonado
COMPLETEDUruguay · Copa Uruguay · 9/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerro · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerro 1-2 Deportivo Maldonado
Original prediction
Cerro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.62 | 25.0% | 36.4% | 11.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.1% | 29.4% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 45.9% | 34.2% | -11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Cerro
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Cerro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40