Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerro 0-2 Cerrito
Original prediction
Cerro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 43.0% | 39.4% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 30.5% | 28.4% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.43 | 26.4% | 32.2% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Cerro
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Cerro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CerroWDDLW
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CerritoLLWDL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CerroCerrito
33.3Attack50.0
66.7Defence50.0
33.3Form50.0
45.3Power50.0
1.63xG1.45