Cerro Portenovs
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
COMPLETEDParaguay · Copa Paraguay · 10/14/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerro Porteno · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerro Porteno 2-2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Original prediction
Cerro Porteno
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 23:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 65.8% | 48.1% | -17.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.48 | 20.2% | 25.7% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 6.49 | 14.0% | 26.2% | 12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.48 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Cerro Porteno
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Cerro Porteno has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20