Libertad Asuncionvs
Independiente F.b.c.
COMPLETEDParaguay · Copa Paraguay · 10/27/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Libertad Asuncion · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Libertad Asuncion 3-1 Independiente F.b.c.
Original prediction
Libertad Asuncion
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 23:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 62.3% | 42.2% | -20.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.8% | 26.8% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 6.06 | 15.0% | 31.1% | 16.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Libertad Asuncion
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Libertad Asuncion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00