Cerro Largovs
Club Nacional
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 9/26/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Club Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cerro Largo 0-0 Club Nacional, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerro Largo 0-2 Club Nacional
Original prediction
Club Nacional
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.46 | 20.4% | 28.8% | 8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.5% | 29.2% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 53.1% | 42.0% | -11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.1 pts
Projected Score
Cerro Largo 0–0 Club Nacional
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Club Nacional
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Club Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40