Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerrito · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerrito 2-2 Wanderers
Original prediction
Cerrito
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.3% | 51.8% | 5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.7% | 25.2% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 26.0% | 22.9% | -3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Cerrito
Probability
51.8%
Model confidence
51.8%
Cerrito has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CerritoWLWDD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
WanderersWWLDD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
CerritoWanderers
55.6Attack33.3
66.7Defence11.1
66.7Form11.1
63.5Power23.1
2.03xG0.90