Central Espanolvs
Defensor Sporting
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 9/6/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Central Espanol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Central Espanol 0-0 Defensor Sporting, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Central Espanol 1-1 Defensor Sporting
Original prediction
Central Espanol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.14 | 29.1% | 39.8% | 10.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.6% | 32.4% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 40.3% | 27.9% | -12.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.98 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.7 pts
Projected Score
Central Espanol 0–0 Defensor Sporting
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Central Espanol
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Central Espanol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00