Central Espanolvs
Club Nacional
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 10/11/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Club Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Central Espanol 0-1 Club Nacional
Original prediction
Club Nacional
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.35 | 17.1% | 24.0% | 6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.4% | 26.7% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.57 | 58.5% | 49.4% | -9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Club Nacional
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
Club Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60