CD Marathonvs
Alianza
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Central American Cup · 10/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Marathon · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CD Marathon 2-1 Alianza
Original prediction
CD Marathon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 17:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 58.6% | 50.4% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.5% | 26.8% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 5.37 | 16.9% | 22.8% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
CD Marathon
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
CD Marathon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40