Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mantova · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Catanzaro 1-3 Mantova
Original prediction
Mantova
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 40.1% | 26.5% | -13.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.2% | 25.4% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 31.7% | 48.1% | 16.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Mantova
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Mantova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CatanzaroLWLLL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MantovaDWDLW
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CatanzaroMantova
33.3Attack66.7
40.0Defence66.7
20.0Form73.3
34.4Power70.9
0.91xG1.83