Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Catanzaro · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Catanzaro 1-0 Carrarese
Original prediction
Catanzaro
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 48.4% | 53.1% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.7% | 24.9% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.92 | 23.8% | 22.0% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Catanzaro
Probability
53.1%
Model confidence
53.1%
Catanzaro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CatanzaroLLLDW
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
CarrareseLDLLW
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CatanzaroCarrarese
53.7Attack34.2
52.8Defence57.0
52.0Form39.5
54.1Power45.8
1.52xG0.86