Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ascoli · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Catanzaro 1-6 Ascoli
Original prediction
Ascoli
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 36.2% | 25.3% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 28.4% | 26.6% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 35.4% | 48.1% | 12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Ascoli
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Ascoli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CatanzaroDLLWL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AscoliDDWLW
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CatanzaroAscoli
38.1Attack38.1
33.3Defence76.2
19.0Form57.1
33.5Power59.6
0.76xG1.46