Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Catania · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Catania 0-3 Savoia
Original prediction
Catania
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 52.3% | 45.3% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 25.9% | 26.6% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.14 | 21.8% | 28.1% | 6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Catania
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Catania has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CataniaLLLDD
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
SavoiaLLW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.67/2.00
BTTS 3/3O2.5 3/3
CataniaSavoia
70.8Attack66.7
54.2Defence66.7
66.7Form100.0
65.5Power80.3
1.82xG1.29