Casa Piavs
Santa Clara
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 10/10/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Clara · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Casa Pia 0-2 Santa Clara, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Casa Pia 0-1 Santa Clara
Original prediction
Santa Clara
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.91 | 24.0% | 18.0% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 28.5% | 23.5% | -5.0 pts |
| Away | 1.98 | 47.4% | 58.5% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.98 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.0 pts
Projected Score
Casa Pia 0–2 Santa Clara
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Santa Clara
Probability
58.5%
Model confidence
58.5%
Santa Clara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Casa PiaWLDLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Santa ClaraDWWDW
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Casa PiaSanta Clara
14.3Attack52.4
23.8Defence81.0
19.0Form71.4
22.3Power69.3
0.60xG2.16