GGOALVIO

Portugal · Primeira Liga · 8/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Moreirense · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Casa Pia are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Moreirense are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWDLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Moreirense hold a 2.7-point power-rating edge (42.7 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.1% in the Primeira Liga, while Moreirense holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Moreirense

Probability

38.7%

Model confidence

14.1%

Moreirense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Casa PiaLLLWW

GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MoreirenseDWDLD

GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Casa PiaMoreirense
37.3Attack66.7
51.0Defence33.3
37.3Form33.3
42.7Power45.3
1.18xG1.33
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