Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Porto · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 0-3 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Casa Pia 1-4 FC Porto
Original prediction
FC Porto
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 12.64 | 7.5% | 13.7% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 6.16 | 15.3% | 19.0% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 1.22 | 77.2% | 67.3% | -9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–310%
Predicted outcome
FC Porto
Probability
67.3%
Model confidence
67.3%
FC Porto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Casa PiaDLLLL
GF 0 · GA 11 · avg 0.00/2.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
FC PortoLWWWW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Casa PiaFC Porto
0.0Attack73.3
26.7Defence93.3
6.7Form100.0
14.4Power90.4
0.74xG2.34