Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Modena · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Carrarese 0-1 Modena, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Carrarese 2-1 Modena
Original prediction
Modena
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.29 | 21.7% | 23.8% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.6% | 27.7% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.80 | 51.7% | 48.5% | -3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Projected Score
Carrarese 0–1 Modena
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Modena
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
Modena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CarrareseWLLLD
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
ModenaWWDLW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CarrareseModena
22.2Attack61.1
66.7Defence66.7
22.2Form72.2
38.9Power68.4
0.76xG1.28