Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carrarese · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carrarese 0-1 Empoli
Original prediction
Carrarese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 39.1% | 38.2% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.8% | 28.9% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 31.2% | 32.9% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Carrarese
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Carrarese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CarrareseDLLWL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
EmpoliLWDDD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
CarrareseEmpoli
34.2Attack41.2
57.0Defence52.6
39.5Form36.0
45.8Power44.7
1.04xG0.96