Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benevento · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Carrarese 0-1 Benevento
Original prediction
Benevento
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.85 | 32.5% | 33.1% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 28.3% | 29.9% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.37 | 39.2% | 36.9% | -2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Benevento
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Benevento has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CarrareseLLDLL
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
BeneventoWLDLL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CarrareseBenevento
34.2Attack50.0
57.0Defence50.0
39.5Form50.0
45.8Power50.0
0.99xG1.10