Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wrexham · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Cardiff are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Wrexham are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Wrexham hold a 7.0-point power-rating edge (46.5 v 53.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.9% in the Championship, while Wrexham holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Wrexham
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
13.9%
Wrexham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 9 · avg 3.20/1.80
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20