Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cardiff · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cardiff 5-1 Watford
Original prediction
Cardiff
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 57.3% | 46.5% | -10.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.22 | 22.4% | 27.9% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 4.63 | 20.4% | 25.7% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Cardiff
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Cardiff has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CardiffLWLDL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
WatfordLLLWL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CardiffWatford
40.7Attack25.9
48.1Defence48.1
25.9Form29.6
40.5Power37.4
1.37xG0.79