Cardiffvs
Stoke City
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/8/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cardiff · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cardiff 1-1 Stoke City
Original prediction
Cardiff
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 46.0% | 38.6% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 25.7% | 25.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.31 | 28.3% | 35.8% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.66 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Cardiff
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Cardiff has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CardiffLLDLD
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Stoke CityWWLDL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CardiffStoke City
40.0Attack53.3
40.0Defence40.0
20.0Form40.0
36.4Power44.4
1.46xG1.52