Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cardiff · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Cardiff are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 3.60 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Norwich are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Norwich hold a 16.7-point power-rating edge (45.9 v 62.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.5% in the League Cup, while Cardiff holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cardiff
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
12.5%
Cardiff has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 18 · GA 11 · avg 3.60/2.20
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60