Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cardiff · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cardiff 0-0 Charlton, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cardiff 3-1 Charlton
Original prediction
Cardiff
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 53.7% | 36.7% | -17.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.9% | 28.4% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 4.18 | 22.4% | 34.9% | 12.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.1 pts
Projected Score
Cardiff 0–0 Charlton
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Cardiff
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Cardiff has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CardiffLDLLD
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CharltonDDLDW
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CardiffCharlton
33.3Attack28.6
47.6Defence66.7
19.0Form57.1
36.4Power53.4
0.85xG1.01