Cardiffvs
Birmingham
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Birmingham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cardiff 1-0 Birmingham
Original prediction
Birmingham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.67 | 35.0% | 29.3% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.8% | 26.1% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.39 | 39.2% | 44.6% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Birmingham
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Birmingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60