Cancúnvs
Venados FC
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/18/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cancún · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cancún 1-1 Venados FC
Original prediction
Cancún
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 48.4% | 46.8% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.8% | 20.2% | -4.7 pts |
| Away | 3.41 | 26.7% | 33.1% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.67 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–28%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Cancún
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
Cancún has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00