Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Cancún are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Tapatío are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 45.6-point power-rating edge (13.2 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80