Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cancún · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cancún 1-0 Tapatío
Original prediction
Cancún
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 55.1% | 44.9% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 23.9% | 24.1% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.35 | 21.1% | 31.0% | 9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Cancún
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
44.9%
Cancún has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CancúnLWDDW
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TapatíoWLLDW
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CancúnTapatío
60.0Attack63.0
50.0Defence48.1
46.7Form51.9
50.8Power54.9
1.98xG1.72