Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CA La Paz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cancún 1-2 CA La Paz
Original prediction
CA La Paz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 46.7% | 34.7% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.2% | 26.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.39 | 27.1% | 39.3% | 12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
CA La Paz
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
CA La Paz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CancúnWWLLL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
CA La PazDWWLL
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CancúnCA La Paz
33.3Attack66.7
50.0Defence60.0
50.0Form46.7
46.7Power55.4
1.24xG1.63