Cancúnvs
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/20/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cancún · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cancún 3-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Original prediction
Cancún
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 54.3% | 58.7% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.0% | 22.7% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 4.40 | 20.7% | 18.6% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Cancún
Probability
58.7%
Model confidence
58.7%
Cancún has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40