Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cagliari · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cagliari 1-0 Lecce
Original prediction
Cagliari
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 45.8% | 43.0% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 30.6% | 29.0% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 4.04 | 23.5% | 27.9% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Cagliari
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Cagliari has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CagliariLLWWD
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
LecceLWLWW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
CagliariLecce
16.7Attack33.3
83.3Defence33.3
50.0Form50.0
53.0Power40.7
1.41xG0.99