Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Juventus · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cagliari 0-0 Juventus, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cagliari 1-1 Juventus
Original prediction
Juventus
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.35 | 15.1% | 29.7% | 14.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.9% | 28.9% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 1.59 | 60.0% | 41.3% | -18.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.85 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.7 pts
Projected Score
Cagliari 0–0 Juventus
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Juventus
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Juventus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CagliariWWWLL
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
JuventusLWWLD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CagliariJuventus
33.3Attack53.3
86.7Defence73.3
80.0Form66.7
70.4Power66.0
0.96xG0.98