Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cagliari · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cagliari 0-0 Bologna, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cagliari 0-2 Bologna
Original prediction
Cagliari
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.97 | 31.9% | 42.8% | 10.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 31.7% | 30.3% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 36.4% | 27.0% | -9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.9 pts
Projected Score
Cagliari 0–0 Bologna
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Cagliari
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Cagliari has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CagliariLDWWW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BolognaLWDLD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CagliariBologna
28.6Attack28.6
66.7Defence52.4
61.9Form23.8
55.1Power38.0
1.11xG0.66