CA La Pazvs
Venados FC
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CA La Paz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CA La Paz 1-2 Venados FC
Original prediction
CA La Paz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 63.2% | 60.5% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.81 | 19.1% | 19.6% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 5.19 | 17.7% | 20.0% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
CA La Paz
Probability
60.5%
Model confidence
60.5%
CA La Paz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00